Antibiotics use in livestock could rise by a third in next 15 years, UN report warns

Governments urged to act to prevent potentially disastrous impacts on human resistance to medicines

The use of antibiotics on livestock will rise by nearly a third in the next 15 years without government intervention, according to new global estimates , with potentially disastrous impacts on human resistance to essential medicines.

Animal husbandry accounts for close to three-quarters of global use of antimicrobial medications and in many countries their use is poorly monitored. Some herds are routinely dosed and in many countries antimicrobials are used to increase the growth of animals bred for meat.

This is one of the leading causes of the rise of superbugs , which are threatening to render antibiotics useless against increasingly resistant diseases . Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) already costs an estimated €11bn (£9.5bn) a year within Europe alone and is predicted to cost $1tn globally by 2050. AMR is forecast to kill tens of millions of people unless there is concerted action, and to make what are currently routine surgeries such as hip replacements life-threatening.

Recent successes in reducing the amount of antibiotics used in farming have borne fruit, with the tonnage used down about a third from its peak in 2013 . But these advances are now in danger because of growing global demand for meat and lax regulation. Many producers are returning to the use of antibiotics for growth promotion.

A report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization published on Wednesday says a continuation of current trends would result in more than 143,000 tonnes of antimicrobials being administered to livestock annually by 2040, a 30% increase from 2019 and surpassing the previous peak of 118,000-130,000 tonnes in 2013.

But the authors say this is not inevitable. Farmers and meat producers could be taught more efficient methods, which would reduce the need for growth enhancement and make disease prevention easier.

Producers are caught in a vicious circle because higher use of antibiotics results in greater resistance to the drugs. The resulting losses to livestock alone could reach a cumulative $318bn by 2040, compared with a maximum cost of $53bn in total to phase out the use of growth promoters.