Democrats and Republicans think control of Congress runs through Iowa

Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz speaks at the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition's Spring Kickoff event May 1, 2026. Stephen Fowler | NPR hide caption

CLIVE, Iowa — There's very little Democrats and Republicans seem to agree on these days, but Iowa's importance to their political futures is one exception.

Tuesday's primary elections will kick off a sprint to November that includes three competitive House races and a Senate race that will help decide control of each chamber of Congress. The open governor's race is one of a handful in the country that experts say could change hands this fall.

Iowa is a state where the institutional strengths and weaknesses of Democrats and Republicans alike are on heightened display in a midterm election year.

President Trump faces record-low approval ratings, rising gas prices, an unpopular war in Iran and affordability concerns. His grip on the Republican Party is stronger than ever, with the few remaining Congressional lawmakers that have notably crossed him ousted in recent primaries.

The national Democratic Party brand is also historically unpopular, even as Democrats continue to see rising enthusiasm in primary election turnout, overperformances in special elections and a polling advantage five months out from Election Day.

At the Iowa Faith and Freedom coalition's spring kickoff event, a record crowd filled the Horizon Events center near Des Moines to hear from Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

"The last year and four months with President Trump in office, with a Republican Senate and Republican House, we have won more victories than at any time since we have been alive," Cruz said.