India’s retail inflation jumps to 5.54% in September, above estimates

India's headline inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August , adding pressure on the country's central bank to further tighten monetary policy.

The consumer price index print was slightly above economists' expectations of 5.40%, according to a Reuters poll. Inflation has been on the rise for 11 straight months in the world's fastest-growing economy and has touched a 22-month high in September.

India's food inflation climbed 7.74% in September from 5.97% the month prior, with prices rising faster in rural areas than cities, India's Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation said in a Monday release. Transport services for goods inflation rose 14.73% while that for personal transport jumped 7.46%, as per the release.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India raised its interest rates for the first time since 2023 , joining several major central banks in tightening monetary policy in a bid to arrest accelerating inflation. India's central bank also said that in the "current conditions" further rate cuts were "off the table in the near term" and policy action could either be a rate hike or a pause.

India is among the countries most vulnerable to the supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. It imports nearly 85% of its fuel needs, and before the Iran war it heavily relied on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz .

Oil prices have been elevated due to the tensions in the Middle East. Experts, however, predict that prices will remain volatile in the near term amid concerns over the Middle East conflict and the impact of Hurricane Isaias.

India's central bank expects core inflation to be at 4.4% for the financial year ending March 2027 and headline inflation at 5.2%, which is higher than the RBI's medium-term target of 4%.

The RBI raised India's economic growth estimate by 40 basis points to 7.1% but cautioned that protracted geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, tightening of financial conditions and elevated international commodity prices would likely weigh on economic activity.