Optics of peace first, details later: The US-Iran 60-day challenge

The wedding ceremony has taken place, but the ring has yet to appear.

That’s the assessment of observers on Monday’s announcement of a breakthrough “deal-to-do-a-deal” between the United States and Iran after more than 100 days of war that began with US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28.

The agreement to end hostilities and begin a 60-day negotiation process on a number of pre-agreed key issues has been welcomed in a region desperate for stability. Gulf states can breathe a sigh of relief after months of uncertainty and Iranian bombing of US military assets and infrastructure on their territories, Lebanon has a glimmer of hope , despite continuing attacks by Israeli which has occupied nearly one-fifth of its territory, and global markets have welcomed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and falling oil prices after weeks of disruption.

The full text of the agreement, expected to be formally signed in Geneva on Friday, has not yet been released, however, mostly third-hand accounts of what is actually in it have conflicted over the past few days.

But the big story is not what has been agreed to, but rather what has been deferred.

According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, the draft agreement gives the two sides 60 days to reach a final settlement on the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme and what to do with its 440kg (970-pound) stockpile of highly enriched uranium. During that period, $24bn in frozen Iranian assets are set to be released, the news agency has reported. The US has not confirmed any of this, however.

Discussions concerning Iran’s missile programme and its support for proxy armed groups in the region have been removed from the negotiating agenda, the agency added, despite US demands at the start of the war.

The result is an agreement that ends the war – for now – but postpones most of the key disagreements that triggered it in the first place.