NBC poll shows 55% blame Trump for economic decline ahead of midterms

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slipped to 41 % among registered voters, and a new NBC News poll shows 55 % of voters believe his policies have hurt the economy as the midterm elections approach. The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates, was released this week and comes as Republicans brace for a competitive November.

The shift follows months of rising prices and an ongoing war in Iran that has pushed up gas and food costs. In March, before the conflict escalated, 48 % of respondents said Trump’s policies were damaging the economy. The war has turned cost‑of‑living concerns into the top issue for voters, eroding the president’s standing and tightening the race for Congress.

Democrats now hold a five‑point lead, 50 % to 45 %, in the contest for control of the House and Senate, far narrower than the 12‑point edge they enjoyed before the 2018 midterms. Yet the party still trails Trump and the GOP in overall favorability. Republican pollster Bill McInturff said the election will be decided by “political geography,” noting that many swing states were won by Trump with double‑digit margins in 2024. Meanwhile, Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt warned that the highest share of voters ever saying they will vote to oppose Trump – nearly half of independents – could backfire for Republicans. More than six in ten voters say the Iran war has not been worth it, and long‑standing leads for Republicans on handling inflation have vanished.

The poll suggests a difficult road ahead for the GOP. Campaigns are emphasizing Democratic extremism to win over undecided voters, but 50 % of respondents say they are more worried that Republicans will double down on Trump if they keep Congress. If those concerns translate into votes, they could tighten the already close midterm races and force Republicans to balance Trump‑driven enthusiasm with broader electoral appeal. The outcome will shape not only control of Congress but also the policy direction on inflation, foreign conflicts, and the nation’s economic recovery.