Prepare for imminent return of El Niño, UN warns

UN agency predicts phenomenon that supercharges weather extremes has 80% chance of forming before September

The world must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño and the supercharged weather extremes it brings, the UN has warned.

The powerful natural weather pattern, which raises global temperatures and worsens some rainfall, has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance of persisting until November, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.

It found most models projected the return of the cyclical phenomenon in the ocean and atmosphere to be “at least moderate” in strength, and possibly strong. Scientists have previously warned that it could be the strongest this century.

António Guterres, the UN secretary general, said the world “must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is”.

“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said. “Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”

The most recent El Niño, which hit in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to a scorchingly hot year in 2024 that broke global temperature records.

The WMO said unusually high temperatures were forecast in nearly all parts of the planet for the next three months, and warned of a greater probability of extreme rain and drought.