Robinhood's stock pops as analyst predicts World Cup will boost prediction markets revenue

What happened: Robinhood's ( HOOD ) stock rose as much as 7% on Monday.

What's behind the move: A Bernstein analyst laid out the case for why the World Cup could be particularly lucrative for the trading app in a research note.

"We expect prediction markets to be [Robinhood's] largest incremental revenue driver for 2026," Bernstein analyst Guatam Chhugani wrote.

Based on volume traded in 2025 — $12 billion — and so far in 2026 — $16 billion —Bernstein estimates Robinhood could see a potential 286% jump in revenue from prediction markets for this year to $586 million.

"We believe as we head deeper into the World Cup, we can expect Robinhood to gain share," Chhugani added, pointing to Polymarket data indicating US Midterm elections and the case of Wall Street's growing institutional interest in prediction markets as other positive drivers.

What else you need to know: Predictions market volume is signaling record interest in the opening days of the World Cup.

Volume at industry leader Kalshi climbed to a record weekly high of $4.5 billion in the first week of June, according to Bernstein. Meanwhile, betting on Polymarket for who wins the World Cup boasted almost twice as much trading volume— $2 billion— as the next most popular contract.

For Robinhood ( HOOD ), the timing appears lucrative. The company recently rolled out its own prediction market platform called Rothera, after relying on a partnership with Kalshi since late 2024. The new platform is looking to compete on lower cost fees, according to Bernstein, which notes it caps commission at $0.01 per contract while also giving its Gold customers another 50% reduction in commission fees.