Russia expected to intensify hybrid war on Europe

Just a few months ago, Russia's war was an distant reality for many people in Europe outside of Ukraine. If Russian drones occasionally entered the airspace of countries like Poland or Romania, even official statements seemed strangely dismissive and abstract. Even after a Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in the eastern Romanian city of Galati in late May this year, many EU and NATO representatives hesitated to accuse Russia of intentional action. At most, there was discussion of hybrid warfare.

The situation has changed radically since the summer. Drone overflights have become almost daily in certain parts of central and southeastern Europe, and there have even been crashes and explosions, particularly in countries bordering Ukraine. Alerts are becoming more frequent, with authorities increasingly having to close airspace or suspend operations at airports, as unauthorized flights are detected. Russia has been bombing border crossings, infrastructure and trains in Ukraine, but very close to other borders. Acts of sabotage are also increasingly common.

For the Baltic states, Poland , Moldova and Romania in particular, the war has long ceased to be "hybrid." More and more, politicians in these countries are saying that Russia is acting deliberately.

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This became evident this week in an unprecedented manner. Moldova recorded four drones entering Moldovan airspace, two of which exploded in Moldovan territory. Wreckage of another was also found. The country's northern airspace was closed temporarily. Two drones also violated Romanian airspace; with one crashing near the northern town of Solca. A nearby border crossing with Ukraine a few dozen kilometers away was closed as a result. NATO aircraft were scrambled near the Danube Delta.

The scrambling of NATO aircraft has become more common in response to Russian air attacks in Ukraine.

In Poland, NATO fighter jets were scrambled twice in response to Russian attacks near the border with Ukraine. Two Polish border crossings were evacuated after a fire broke out at a Starlink ground station near the village of Wola Krobowska , 40 kilomters (ca. 25 miles) south of the Polish capital Warsaw, on Wednesday night. The station is used to route internet traffic through Poland to Ukraine.

On the same day, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter violated Polish airspace and remained there for 42 seconds according to the Polish military.