Sir John Curtice: Burnham's win represents remarkable personal success for him

The victory of Andy Burnham in the Makerfield by-election is more than just another electoral triumph for Labour—it underscores a quiet but significant shift in the party’s electoral fortunes in areas where it once struggled. Burnham’s win follows a string of recent Labour successes in seats that have historically leaned toward the Conservatives, a pattern that challenges the narrative of the party’s declining influence beyond its urban heartlands. The contrast with last year’s Runcorn by-election, where Labour’s vote plummeted by 14 points, is striking. It suggests that Burnham’s personal brand, built on his tenure as Greater Manchester’s mayor and his vocal opposition to austerity, may be resonating more effectively than the party’s national messaging under Keir Starmer. This result also highlights the growing importance of devolved leadership in Labour’s electoral strategy. Burnham’s ability to connect with voters in his region—particularly on issues like public services and economic stagnation—has allowed him to transcend the broader challenges facing the party. His success raises questions about whether Labour’s current leadership is doing enough to leverage the popularity of figures like Burnham, who operate with a degree of autonomy from Westminster. If this trend continues, it could signal a future where regional leaders play a more decisive role in shaping the party’s direction. Looking ahead, the next logical step for Burnham (and Labour) would be to test this appeal in more competitive seats, particularly in the North West and Midlands, where the party has lost ground in recent years. However, the real test will come in the general election, where Burnham’s personal popularity must translate into broader gains. The risk remains that without stronger national leadership, even locally popular figures may struggle to break through in areas where Labour’s brand is still weak. For now, Burnham’s win is a reminder that in British politics, personality and place still matter—sometimes more than party. Whether this is a temporary blip or the start of a longer-term realignment will depend on whether Labour can build on this momentum beyond the by-election cycle.