U.S. jobless claims fall to 197,000, lowest since July

First‑time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits slipped to 197,000 for the week ended September 19, according to a Labor Department report released Thursday, marking the lowest weekly total since a multi‑decade low of 189,000 in the week of July 18. The figure fell by 1,000 from the prior week’s revised count of 198,000 and ran counter to economists’ forecasts that expected a rise to 204,000 after the previous week’s initial report of 196,000.

The dip comes as the labor market continues to show resilience despite a slowdown in hiring. The less volatile four‑week moving average of initial claims edged down to 202,250, a drop of 1,750 from the previous average of 204,000. Analysts had been watching the data for signs that the Fed’s higher‑interest‑rate policy might be cooling the economy. Instead, the modest decline suggests layoffs remain limited and the labor market is striking a balance between a low rate of job cuts and only modest growth in the labor force.

Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said the numbers “continue to be consistent with a low pace of layoffs and a labor market that has struck a balance between a low rate of hiring and little growth in the labor force.” While the headline figure fell, continuing claims – the count of people still receiving unemployment benefits – rose slightly by 2,000 to 1.719 million for the week ended September 12. However, the four‑week moving average of continuing claims dropped to 1.744 million, down 13,000 from the prior average. The mixed signals keep policymakers cautious; the Fed will likely weigh the steady decline in new claims against the modest rise in ongoing claims as it decides whether to hold or adjust its interest‑rate stance in the coming months.