Why Tories are talking about winning the next election

Political party conferences can be weird events - where positive thinking and hopeful rhetoric can crowd out reality.

If you spend enough time drinking and socialising with like-minded people anything can seem possible.

That could be one explanation for the upbeat mood of this year's Conservative gathering in Birmingham.

On the face of it, the party has made little progress since it was emphatically ejected from power in 2024. If an election was held tomorrow, it would do even worse than it did back then, according to some polls.

Yet senior figures, including leader Kemi Badenoch, are talking about winning the next general election outright and forming a government.

One reason for their optimism is that they appear to have seen off, for now, the threat of being destroyed or swallowed up by Reform UK - a prospect which hung over last year's conference amid swirling rumours of defections and speculation about deals with Nigel Farage.

Another is Badenoch herself, who appears to have made a positive impression on the public.

Her approval rating has soared in recent months and she is now one of only two party leaders with a net positive rating (the other being Prime Minister Andy Burnham), according to pollsters More In Common. , external